Pundit update, Spring 1903

turn information to come soon; I was too fast. Current maps here.

Europe has seen some of the most amazing development known to diplomacy this convulse season. Your trusty correspondent writes his last dispatch from London that fears becoming a provincial town of the French Empire. My next chronicle, alas, will be from the continent. On with the analysis.

The Western front: France unleashed

Developments in the Western threatre of operations have one chief master of mayhem: France. In a set of masterful moves, France has managed to lure Britain to an impossible position of lost sovereignty and defeat.

Their moves have been masterful. They read (correctly, and way better than your pundit) than Germany was doomed, and that they were not the ones to benefit for its downfall. Their brilliance, however, was realizing that luring the British to overcommitment would open them to a vicious, swift, brilliant stab. And boy, did they execute well. Baring an Italian surprise (more later), they are poised to to dismantle the British homeland in one year.

Germany, in turn, suffered from anti-French tunnel vision, and spreaded themselves too thin. The convoy attempt was brilliant (despite the failure), but the moves to Munich and Belgium were not. They probably fell in a British trap there, with France actually being the one that pulled the strings.

About England... greed and being too confident in a French backpedalling to cover the Italian excursion doomed them. I don't blame them, although leaving the North Sea open was criminal.

My take is that despite being at each other's throats, England should try to work out something with Germany the coming season. They don't have any other way out. The blue navies should survive at Belgium and Denmark while Germany fends of the attacks on their homeland with their help. Of course, it could well be that Germany is already on a deal with France, but this looks unlikely. I bet that they are the ones who leaked the German convoy to Russia, after all.

Eastern front and Italy: sharpening the knife too early

Pretty smooth sailing for the Eastern powers this season, with some major clouds in the horizon. First, Austria is getting restless, both on the board and according to some leaks from embassies. Their move to Galicia probably hints that either they distrust Russia like mad, or that they knew about the German convoy attempt. In any case, the brilliant Russian bounce and Silesia's army holding position shows that Russia is wary of any kind of foul play, and prefered to play it safe.

My take on the situation is that both countries should try to keep cooperating and stop testing each other. Both have huge open expanses of terrain to grow, without having any clear killing stab to finish each other offer. One turkish center in exchange of help in Munich, coulld be their coordinated moves, with Austria making a supported convoy to Southern Italy and Russia finishing off England now that they can.

In the medium term, my money is not on Austria, in any case. They probably though that I was wrong when I suggested they should support a German invasion and leave Italy alone harrassing France, as Russia was more likely to reap the benefits. Now they are in the situation of provoking a "slow kill" that keeps Italy alive while useful (not too long), get some centers, and after the reluctant Russian advance to Germany (due to French-induced paranoia, maybe?) grow faster than their neighbour. Their problem is that France and Russia are natural allies now in Germany, and probably elsewhere... and they have just stabbed their only natural ally left, Italy.

Russia and France should talk. A lot. They need to kill Germany as fast as possible. After that, they could be in a position to race to kill Austria as fast as possible to see who wins.

Pundit update: on builds and expansion

According to my sources, the German authorities are really looking forward the French decision regarding builds. In their own words, they are tired of "spending far too much time trying to get France to see beyond the tip of his fscking nose", and trying to avoid going to a senseless war that will ruin the future of both countries. If France builds an army in Paris, our Wilhelmstrasse sources report that Germany is going to go Medieval on the Gauls, no matter the consequences.

In my view, I think that Germany has a fair point. Considering how fast the East front is unfolding, it is of the outmost importance for any country in the West to race to finishing off at least one neighbour before the Bear and the Empire decide to steamroll to the West.

What I am not that sure, however, is if France's best ally is Germany in this regard. Let me have a look at the East to see their options.

Turkey, barring any pathetic mistake by Austria and Russia, is pretty much toast. Right now, I don't think that even the fleet is worth much, depending on how events unfold. It is quite clear than Austria and Russia have the resources to tore the country down already in place; the best turk can do is backtrack, and scream for help from Italy, something that the fleet-on-exile is not likely to do moving West.

The question is, consequently, where are Austria and Russia headed? My guess is that they are both going to Germany. I don't see Austria moving against Italy this year; they lack the manpower to open Venice in Spring, and they really can't make much progress on their own (that is, not favouring Turkey) without more fleets. The fact that they didn't position their armies for a Venice push is telling; they are going to maul Germany, trying to inflict on them the same kind of swift, painful defeat that Turkey is going to enjoy.

This means that Italy is on Austria's side, obviously, and being used to tie down as many French units as possible in the Mediterranean. The question for France is, where England sits. If they are in bed with Russia (likely), they need to help Germany and prey. If they are still unattached, they need to reach an agreement with them fast. Call me paranoid, but if Austria and Russia are really cooperating as much as I suspect, and Italy is on board, the Western powers need a triple alliance there as fast as possible.

What is clear is that as it stands now, France doesn't have enough resources to be the most favoured nation in a German partition; specially if Italy keeps on the pressure. Italy can afford losing one SC to a doomed Turkey, so I won't bet my strategy on that fact. Their problem is, they don't have anywhere else to grow. Their lack of focus is going to force them play second fiddle, unless they seek a broad alliance.

If my speculation of an Italian-Austian agreement is right, that is. If Austria carves Italy something fierce, then they should stab Germany as hard as they can. Their South flank being safe, and with only Russia challenging Germany on land, they have the upper hand.

My bet is, however, in the first scenario.

ADWN exclusive: Fear and Loathing in London

This is Egocrata, writing from Fleet Street in London, in the second edition of the Ars Diplomacy War News special report.

Conflict has seemingly spread swiftly and violently all across the continent, just as most observers predicted. The lines of conflict and war, however, have been surprising to many analysts, including, to a certain extend, this correspondent. Now, from London, a city that lives in fear of the dark storm clouds that gather in the English Channel, I send this report.


Western front: ¿England in danger?

Surprising turn of events in the West, breaking away from the apparent non-threatening moves from the Spring. Turning against my expectations, France has ditched away the standard fleet invasion of Portugal for a bold, surprising move to the English Channel. Not only that, but the managed to enrol Germany with a swift move against Belgium. The Kaiser and his advisors deserve praise for the deal; France forfeiting a sure built in the South for a dubious Rhur support surely took a great deal of effort. In any case, nice move, that puts Britain all of a sudden in a world of pain, specially considering the fleet build up.

According to some secret (and anonymous) ADWN sources, the franco-german deal was in fact already in place by Spring, with some very elaborate coordinated denial from both powers. According to the same source, England was totally taken by surprise, despite some (minor) French leaks to other powers.

The forecast, for this side of the board, is quite clear: if Germany and France don't blow it, England is pretty much screwed. Russia won't risk a war against Germany so early on, Austria has nothing to win, and Italy is stuck with Lepanto antics. If they coordinate in a way that stabbing each other remains unpractical, they have a great head start.

Eastern front: ¿A league of three Emperors?

The situation in the Eastern front gives some credence to the fake war between Russia and Austria theory advanced in my first report. No matter if I was right or not, it seems that Turkey totally bought into the Galitzia bounce as an act of war line of argument, because they followed a set of moves that Russia probably loves with passion. Traffic jam, Black Sea empty, and fleet build in the Med. Great. For once, that fleet will probably prove to be useful (poor Italy, no easy fun for them in the Balkans), but they seem to be in a tight spot.

We will see how the situation evolves, but in the medium term, I see a "league of the three Emperors" (German Kaiser, Russian Tsar and Austrian Emperor) working pretty smoothly together for a couple of years. Austria and Russia have such a nice shot against Turkey that it would be foolish to pass it, and they both benefit from German neutrality in the short run. Specially the Germans, really, even more if they are fast in finishing England.

Our sources have suggested the ADWN that in fact most of the moves and the drama that unfolded in the Balkans were in fact more a product of sheer luck from Russia (and a painful Turkish mistake) than anything else. I suspect that it is more likely to be a product of the well known talent for evil of Xherakleitos and Ionitor, with some great "playing dumb" from Secondhand Jack than anything else, though. In any case, the situation know asks for their cooperation, with almost the same caveats than the French-German alliance.

Lone gunman: Italy

Not much to say about them. They live in the traditional Italian problem of not being useful for anybody until 1903, and by them facing the horror of being too weak to do anything worth telling. My suggestion with them is to ignore rationality for a moment, and go wild. Really, really, really wild. Screw alliances, screw being nice, try to go ahead and punch someone in the face. Probably France, that hasn't send that many people to Spain to do the job, and is too focused in the North. A shame that the convoy to Tunis looks so retarded now, though. No army landing in Spain this year.

They could risk punching Austria, but I feel they don't have the focus or the numbers to break the front (and Russia is going to carry the brunt of the offensive, in any case) and they are probably gonig to be too late for the Turkish party. So guys, think out of the box.

ADWN exclusive: The Egocratic report from London

This is Egocrata, writing from Fleet Street in London, in the first edition of the Ars Diplomacy War News special report.

The opening moves of what seems to have become a full blown conflict engulfing the whole continent have finally started this Spring. The reports from the front are still confusing at best, although thanks to our privileged network of ADWN correspondants we have been able to draw a pretty accurate map of the opening moves. With this information in mind, however, I think it is possible to draft some tentative analysis.

France: the Republic has started this war with a set of fairly non-confrontational, neutral moves, focusing its expansion to the West and the South. Although it makes sense in terms of trying to look non-threatening, the tactical position for Spring of 1902 would be pretty passive. And being passive sometimes is not a good thing. Favouring France, however, we see that England has not moved clearly against the hexagon, so perhaps an agreement can be reached there.

Germany: fairly clear, non-compromising opening for them as well, although the move to the Rhur hints some anti-French possibilities. The fact that they will be the only power with two units close to the low countries will certaintly open some creative fall diplomacy, without worries from the South or East. They must fear an entente cordiale between both sides of the channel, however, and try to convince either France that having a fleet-building country on their backs is a idea, or England than tearing a hole in Gibraltar is their best way to advance. I personally find the first more appealing for both sides, although France's dull opening is not reasuring.

England: pretty standard opening, more biased against Germany than that against France, although by a small margin. They need to work out a deal with one of their neighbours on how to make their fearsome shipyards non-threatening. Selling a long term deal is a good idea.

Italy: the usual in the South, a paranoid non-move in Venice. Either that, or they have the hare-brained idea of attacking Austria right away. Conventional wisdom says that Italians invading Austria is usually a bad idea. Of course, if Italy has enough friends and Austria hasn't, it could be the other way. If attacking was not the idea, the non-move is a waste. If it was, that bounce at Galitzia just made it useless. Maybe I am crazy, but I love to see Italy attacking France. It is usually more fun.

Austria: good opening for the dual monarchy. The Galitzia bounce was spot on (or even better than that, more bellow), denying Russia any chance of a Fall easy attack. The other two moves grant two builds, and force their two neighbours to have a pretty boring end of the year, and just one build in the Balkans. If they want to play crazy, they can offer Turkey a Deal, even. In any case, they look to be the most fancied target out there. Good luck.

Russia: looking Anti-Austrian in the South so early on is not usually a good idea. Specially when a single bounce crashes the plan. Unless that was an agreed bounce, that is. It makes sense. Austria gets a nice, non-troubled starting position, Russia bottles up Turkey a bit and guarantees a build... unless they do a weird thing, and sacrifice it to keep denying Turkey the Black Sea. Why not? I know, I am crazy. Of course, it could be that Russia just managed to open agressive both against Turkey AND Austria, hoping to be in a strong position, and now they just have to pissed neighbours. Their short term moves, in that case, would probably be quite passive, as they lack credibility.

Turkey: neither good nor bad. They do not interfere with Austria in a serious way (yet), and are in a good "let's piss Russia" position. Their problem is, Austria usually prefers Russia as ally than helping create a yellow monster on their belly. They should focus on the short term on a "grab land, ask questions later" framework now, focusing on Russia, and pray that Austria thinks they can manage them.

"The lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."