ADWN exclusive: Fear and Loathing in London

This is Egocrata, writing from Fleet Street in London, in the second edition of the Ars Diplomacy War News special report.

Conflict has seemingly spread swiftly and violently all across the continent, just as most observers predicted. The lines of conflict and war, however, have been surprising to many analysts, including, to a certain extend, this correspondent. Now, from London, a city that lives in fear of the dark storm clouds that gather in the English Channel, I send this report.


Western front: ¿England in danger?

Surprising turn of events in the West, breaking away from the apparent non-threatening moves from the Spring. Turning against my expectations, France has ditched away the standard fleet invasion of Portugal for a bold, surprising move to the English Channel. Not only that, but the managed to enrol Germany with a swift move against Belgium. The Kaiser and his advisors deserve praise for the deal; France forfeiting a sure built in the South for a dubious Rhur support surely took a great deal of effort. In any case, nice move, that puts Britain all of a sudden in a world of pain, specially considering the fleet build up.

According to some secret (and anonymous) ADWN sources, the franco-german deal was in fact already in place by Spring, with some very elaborate coordinated denial from both powers. According to the same source, England was totally taken by surprise, despite some (minor) French leaks to other powers.

The forecast, for this side of the board, is quite clear: if Germany and France don't blow it, England is pretty much screwed. Russia won't risk a war against Germany so early on, Austria has nothing to win, and Italy is stuck with Lepanto antics. If they coordinate in a way that stabbing each other remains unpractical, they have a great head start.

Eastern front: ¿A league of three Emperors?

The situation in the Eastern front gives some credence to the fake war between Russia and Austria theory advanced in my first report. No matter if I was right or not, it seems that Turkey totally bought into the Galitzia bounce as an act of war line of argument, because they followed a set of moves that Russia probably loves with passion. Traffic jam, Black Sea empty, and fleet build in the Med. Great. For once, that fleet will probably prove to be useful (poor Italy, no easy fun for them in the Balkans), but they seem to be in a tight spot.

We will see how the situation evolves, but in the medium term, I see a "league of the three Emperors" (German Kaiser, Russian Tsar and Austrian Emperor) working pretty smoothly together for a couple of years. Austria and Russia have such a nice shot against Turkey that it would be foolish to pass it, and they both benefit from German neutrality in the short run. Specially the Germans, really, even more if they are fast in finishing England.

Our sources have suggested the ADWN that in fact most of the moves and the drama that unfolded in the Balkans were in fact more a product of sheer luck from Russia (and a painful Turkish mistake) than anything else. I suspect that it is more likely to be a product of the well known talent for evil of Xherakleitos and Ionitor, with some great "playing dumb" from Secondhand Jack than anything else, though. In any case, the situation know asks for their cooperation, with almost the same caveats than the French-German alliance.

Lone gunman: Italy

Not much to say about them. They live in the traditional Italian problem of not being useful for anybody until 1903, and by them facing the horror of being too weak to do anything worth telling. My suggestion with them is to ignore rationality for a moment, and go wild. Really, really, really wild. Screw alliances, screw being nice, try to go ahead and punch someone in the face. Probably France, that hasn't send that many people to Spain to do the job, and is too focused in the North. A shame that the convoy to Tunis looks so retarded now, though. No army landing in Spain this year.

They could risk punching Austria, but I feel they don't have the focus or the numbers to break the front (and Russia is going to carry the brunt of the offensive, in any case) and they are probably gonig to be too late for the Turkish party. So guys, think out of the box.