ADWN exclusive: The Egocratic report from London

This is Egocrata, writing from Fleet Street in London, in the first edition of the Ars Diplomacy War News special report.

The opening moves of what seems to have become a full blown conflict engulfing the whole continent have finally started this Spring. The reports from the front are still confusing at best, although thanks to our privileged network of ADWN correspondants we have been able to draw a pretty accurate map of the opening moves. With this information in mind, however, I think it is possible to draft some tentative analysis.

France: the Republic has started this war with a set of fairly non-confrontational, neutral moves, focusing its expansion to the West and the South. Although it makes sense in terms of trying to look non-threatening, the tactical position for Spring of 1902 would be pretty passive. And being passive sometimes is not a good thing. Favouring France, however, we see that England has not moved clearly against the hexagon, so perhaps an agreement can be reached there.

Germany: fairly clear, non-compromising opening for them as well, although the move to the Rhur hints some anti-French possibilities. The fact that they will be the only power with two units close to the low countries will certaintly open some creative fall diplomacy, without worries from the South or East. They must fear an entente cordiale between both sides of the channel, however, and try to convince either France that having a fleet-building country on their backs is a idea, or England than tearing a hole in Gibraltar is their best way to advance. I personally find the first more appealing for both sides, although France's dull opening is not reasuring.

England: pretty standard opening, more biased against Germany than that against France, although by a small margin. They need to work out a deal with one of their neighbours on how to make their fearsome shipyards non-threatening. Selling a long term deal is a good idea.

Italy: the usual in the South, a paranoid non-move in Venice. Either that, or they have the hare-brained idea of attacking Austria right away. Conventional wisdom says that Italians invading Austria is usually a bad idea. Of course, if Italy has enough friends and Austria hasn't, it could be the other way. If attacking was not the idea, the non-move is a waste. If it was, that bounce at Galitzia just made it useless. Maybe I am crazy, but I love to see Italy attacking France. It is usually more fun.

Austria: good opening for the dual monarchy. The Galitzia bounce was spot on (or even better than that, more bellow), denying Russia any chance of a Fall easy attack. The other two moves grant two builds, and force their two neighbours to have a pretty boring end of the year, and just one build in the Balkans. If they want to play crazy, they can offer Turkey a Deal, even. In any case, they look to be the most fancied target out there. Good luck.

Russia: looking Anti-Austrian in the South so early on is not usually a good idea. Specially when a single bounce crashes the plan. Unless that was an agreed bounce, that is. It makes sense. Austria gets a nice, non-troubled starting position, Russia bottles up Turkey a bit and guarantees a build... unless they do a weird thing, and sacrifice it to keep denying Turkey the Black Sea. Why not? I know, I am crazy. Of course, it could be that Russia just managed to open agressive both against Turkey AND Austria, hoping to be in a strong position, and now they just have to pissed neighbours. Their short term moves, in that case, would probably be quite passive, as they lack credibility.

Turkey: neither good nor bad. They do not interfere with Austria in a serious way (yet), and are in a good "let's piss Russia" position. Their problem is, Austria usually prefers Russia as ally than helping create a yellow monster on their belly. They should focus on the short term on a "grab land, ask questions later" framework now, focusing on Russia, and pray that Austria thinks they can manage them.

"The lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."