Pundit update: on builds and expansion

According to my sources, the German authorities are really looking forward the French decision regarding builds. In their own words, they are tired of "spending far too much time trying to get France to see beyond the tip of his fscking nose", and trying to avoid going to a senseless war that will ruin the future of both countries. If France builds an army in Paris, our Wilhelmstrasse sources report that Germany is going to go Medieval on the Gauls, no matter the consequences.

In my view, I think that Germany has a fair point. Considering how fast the East front is unfolding, it is of the outmost importance for any country in the West to race to finishing off at least one neighbour before the Bear and the Empire decide to steamroll to the West.

What I am not that sure, however, is if France's best ally is Germany in this regard. Let me have a look at the East to see their options.

Turkey, barring any pathetic mistake by Austria and Russia, is pretty much toast. Right now, I don't think that even the fleet is worth much, depending on how events unfold. It is quite clear than Austria and Russia have the resources to tore the country down already in place; the best turk can do is backtrack, and scream for help from Italy, something that the fleet-on-exile is not likely to do moving West.

The question is, consequently, where are Austria and Russia headed? My guess is that they are both going to Germany. I don't see Austria moving against Italy this year; they lack the manpower to open Venice in Spring, and they really can't make much progress on their own (that is, not favouring Turkey) without more fleets. The fact that they didn't position their armies for a Venice push is telling; they are going to maul Germany, trying to inflict on them the same kind of swift, painful defeat that Turkey is going to enjoy.

This means that Italy is on Austria's side, obviously, and being used to tie down as many French units as possible in the Mediterranean. The question for France is, where England sits. If they are in bed with Russia (likely), they need to help Germany and prey. If they are still unattached, they need to reach an agreement with them fast. Call me paranoid, but if Austria and Russia are really cooperating as much as I suspect, and Italy is on board, the Western powers need a triple alliance there as fast as possible.

What is clear is that as it stands now, France doesn't have enough resources to be the most favoured nation in a German partition; specially if Italy keeps on the pressure. Italy can afford losing one SC to a doomed Turkey, so I won't bet my strategy on that fact. Their problem is, they don't have anywhere else to grow. Their lack of focus is going to force them play second fiddle, unless they seek a broad alliance.

If my speculation of an Italian-Austian agreement is right, that is. If Austria carves Italy something fierce, then they should stab Germany as hard as they can. Their South flank being safe, and with only Russia challenging Germany on land, they have the upper hand.

My bet is, however, in the first scenario.